2013 pipe market demand forecast

2013 pipe market demand forecast

in 2012, the steel pipe market was not so prosperous, and the price fluctuated for a long time. In November, the domestic seamless steel pipe market price showed a trend of rising first and then restraining, and still fluctuated. In December, due to the sharp cooling of the weather in the northern region and the shortage of funds at the end of the year, the national seamless pipe market price continued to be in a volatile and weak downward trend. Steel traders generally hold a wait-and-see attitude. At present, they mainly digest inventory and return funds, and have not yet expressed the willingness to store goods in winter

however, some operators seem to be full of expectations for the domestic steel pipe market in 2103 and believe that the favorable factors of the steel pipe market in 2013 will increase, which is conducive to the smooth and good operation of the whole market. These positive factors are mainly reflected in that the downstream terminal demand intensity will be stronger than that in 2012, and the driving force of demand is expected to increase. Mainly reflected in:

first, the accelerated development of urbanization and the construction of urban natural gas network drive the demand for steel pipes. At the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, when analyzing and studying the economic work in 2013, it was pointed out that "we should focus on improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth", strive to expand domestic demand and accelerate the cultivation of a number of new consumption growth points with strong driving force. The hope of expanding domestic demand is to realize it through urbanization. Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that there is a huge gap between urban and rural areas in China, and the greatest development potential in the next few decades lies in urbanization. Industry insiders predict that China's new urban population will reach about 400 million in the next 10 years. According to a lower caliber, the citizenization of migrant workers can also increase the investment demand of 40 trillion yuan based on the per capita fixed asset investment of 100000 yuan. If hydraulic oil with too low viscosity is used

accelerating urbanization and the construction of urban gas pipeline network will be an important aspect. According to the 12th Five Year Plan for national urban gas development issued by the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, the total amount of urban gas supply will be about 178.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 113% compared with the end of the 11th five year plan. During the 12th Five Year Plan period, about 250000 kilometers of urban gas pipelines will be built in China. By the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, the total length of urban gas pipelines will reach 600000 kilometers. If the construction of urban gas management is accelerated, the demand for steel pipes will increase significantly. According to the planning of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, 250000 kilometers of urban gas pipelines will be built, and 500 tons of steel pipes will be consumed per kilometer of general trunk lines. Then the demand for steel pipes will be about 6.875 million tons

Second, the acceleration of China's natural gas development has injected strong power into the stable and good operation of the domestic steel pipe market in 2013. The 12th Five Year Plan for natural gas development just released by the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration defines the process of China's natural gas development. By 2015, the natural gas consumption population in cities and counties in China will reach about 250 million, accounting for about 18% of the total population. Natural gas development focuses on natural gas infrastructure, takes into account the exploration and development of natural gas upstream resources and the utilization of downstream markets, and covers coalbed methane, shale gas and coal to gas. It is an important basis for guiding the healthy development of China's natural gas industry during the 12th Five Year Plan period

during the 12th Five Year Plan period, the proved geological reserves of conventional natural gas will be increased by 3.5 trillion cubic meters (the technically recoverable reserves are about 1.9 trillion cubic meters); The proved geological reserves of coalbed methane increased by 1 trillion cubic meters. 44000 km of new natural gas pipelines (including branch lines) and about 150 billion m3/year of new trunk pipeline transmission capacity; The working gas volume of the new gas storage is about 22 billion cubic meters, and the main arteries are the west to east gas transmission, Sichuan to east gas transmission, Shaanxi Beijing line and coastal trunk roads. During the "12th Five Year Plan" period, the total investment of 812.4 billion yuan in China's steel pipe storage will inevitably drive the total demand of 812.4 billion yuan. According to the analysis of industry experts, with reference to the data of the second west east gas transmission line, a total of 8800 km of lines (4.4 million tons of steel pipes are consumed) provide a gas supply capacity of 30 billion cubic meters, so a total of 13.86 million tons of steel pipes are required for the construction of long-distance gas transmission pipelines

according to the comprehensive calculation, the demand for steel pipes driven by urban pipeline and gas source transmission is as follows: according to the total data, the annual demand is about 4.15 million tons, of which the annual demand for long-distance oil and gas transmission pipes with high gross profit and high price is about 2.77 million tons

Third, the construction of oil and gas strategic channel has ushered in a new climax, stimulating the demand for steel pipes. In 2013, the construction of China's oil and gas strategic channels will continue to accelerate. The 12th Five year plan proposes to "accelerate the construction of imported oil and gas strategic channels in the northwest, northeast, southwest and offshore due to insufficient supervision, and improve the domestic oil and gas trunk pipes", Build a new national strategic reserve base. Recently, the overseas pipeline Research Institute of CNPC (601857, Guba) Planning Institute disclosed that in the next five years, China's new national strategic oil reserve base will need to invest 80 billion yuan, and the construction of oil and gas pipelines will need to invest about 350 billion yuan

in the construction of product oil pipeline, the product oil pipeline system mainly covers the northeast, northwest, North China, Central South and Western Shandong, forming a pipeline transportation pattern of "North-to-South oil transfer and west-to-east oil transmission". The newly-built product oil pipeline will reach more than 10000-15000 kilometers, and the transportation capacity will reach 100 million tons/year. Therefore, there is a great demand for steel pipes. According to statistics, by 2015, the total length of domestic oil and gas pipelines is expected to reach about 140000 kilometers. In the next five years, the total weight of steel pipes required for the construction of domestic oil and gas pipelines will be about 16 million tons, including 12.5 million tons for natural gas pipelines, 1.5 million tons for crude oil pipelines and 2 million tons for product oil pipelines

some operators and insiders believe that in 2013, China will accelerate the development of natural gas, accelerate the construction of urbanization and speed up the construction of oil and gas strategic channels, which will form a huge driving force for stimulating the demand for steel pipes, make the steel pipe market stable and improve the competitiveness of the market, and further improve the operation. Taking into account the steel pipe consumption of various industries, It is predicted that in 2013, only the domestic energy industry will consume about 30.5 million tons of steel, including steel pipes, an increase of 2.3% over 2012; The demand for steel in the construction industry was 365 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; The demand of steel industry increased by 1.84 billion tons year-on-year; The demand for steel in the automotive industry was 44.2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%; The demand for steel in the railway industry is 4.7 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. The consumption of various steel pipes here accounts for a certain proportion. The demand for steel pipes in 2013 will increase compared with that in 2012. There seems to be no suspense

however, some operators believe that the uncertain factors affecting the steel pipe in 2013 still exist and need to be paid attention to. For example, the phenomenon of capacity expansion, excess supply and prominent contradiction between supply and demand will also appear. China's steel pipe production capacity expanded too fast, and the oversupply of some ordinary steel pipes was more obvious. In 2012, the domestic seamless steel pipe production reached 22.859 million tons, an increase of 6.9% over the same period last year, of which the cumulative increase of new resources was 3.5%. In January, the output of welded steel pipe was 38.902 million tons, an increase of 13.4% year-on-year. In 2013, the steel pipe production capacity was released, the output increased, exceeding the growth of demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, curbing the rise of steel pipe market prices

moreover, the situation of steel pipe export in 2013 is not optimistic. As the world economy has not recovered significantly, the steel industry and steel market have been affected, the friction of steel trade continues, foreign anti-dumping against China's steel pipes continues, and the export situation of steel pipes has not improved. In October 2012, the export volume of China's seamless steel pipes was 390100 tons, and the export volume decreased significantly. The export of steel pipes in 2013 is still uncertain, and there are many uncertain factors

the above uncertain factors will affect the trend of steel pipe market in 2013, which can not but attract attention