The hottest import surges, and the structural adju

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Import surged, and the structural adjustment of domestic machine tools is imminent

In recent years, the term

has always been used to describe the surge in China's imports of machine tool products. This is not true. According to the market operation analysis of the machine tool industry in the first half of 2011 released recently by the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the import of machine tool products in China grew rapidly from January to June, with a year-on-year increase of 46.4%, hitting a new record high in the same period

the import growth rate is higher than the industry growth rate

according to statistics, in the import data, the import value of metal processing machine tools is US $6.14 billion, occupying the functions of setting, data collection, calculation and processing, displaying and printing the experimental results of the whole machine; Equipped with kql-powertest2001 dedicated to experimental machines, the amount of intelligent test software packages in Chinese and English versions was more than half, with a year-on-year increase of 57.8%. Among them, the import of CNC machine tools was US $5.11 billion, an increase of 56.5% year-on-year

it is worth noting that the average price of imported metal processing machine tools increased by 33.7% year-on-year. According to the analysis of the marketing department of the association, the main reason is that the unit price of machine tools that account for a relatively high proportion in the import of metal processing machine tools, such as horizontal lathes, other grinders, tool grinders, ultrasonic processing machines, punches, forging or stamping machines, has increased significantly

from January to June, the total industrial output value of the machine tool industry reached 300.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.4%. Although this data is also very gratifying, there is a problem that we have to look straight at. After the rapid growth in 2010, China's machine tool industry still maintained a relatively high growth rate, but its momentum has gradually slowed down and began to show a slow downward trend. From the perspective of trend, the machine tool market in the second half of the year is not optimistic

especially in the late second quarter, the machine tool industry suddenly experienced a decline in orders, which is an obvious signal for the machine tool market, which has been showing rapid development. We learned that since July, the number of new orders undertaken by enterprises has declined to varying degrees compared with the first half of the year, and some are less than half of that in April

at this time, imported machine tools still maintain a high-speed growth, which is much higher than the growth rate of the gross industrial output of domestic machine tool enterprises. In the past few years, when formulating relevant product strategies, many backbone enterprises in China have aimed at replacing imports, but they have visited Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shangqiu, Henan and other places before and after. Now it seems that the product structure adjustment of China's machine tool industry is not ideal. Of course, this does not mean that imports should be completely curbed, but the import growth rate is higher than the industry growth rate, which is worth pondering

the import of metal processing machine tools increased by 57.8% year-on-year, and the import of metal cutting machine tools increased by 58.3% year-on-year. These two data reflect that the demand structure of China's machine tool market is constantly changing, and the demand for medium - and high-end products has increased significantly. They also reflect that domestic medium - and high-end products have deficiencies in technology and industrialization

as early as 3-5 years ago, en Baobao, an elder in the machine tool industry, said in an interview that it is right to aim at replacing imports, but different enterprises must have different positioning. Not all of them should aim at the market demand of the top of the pyramid, such as high-precision and high-end. More enterprises should target the market at the bottom of the pyramid, which needs universal machine tools

from the perspective of import region, in the first half of the year, the number of CNC lathes imported from Taiwan, China ranked first, reaching 1487, with a year-on-year increase of 29.5%; Ranked second in terms of amount, with a total amount of US $100million, an increase of 45.5% year-on-year, accounting for 25.4% of the total amount of CNC lathes imported from the mainland. Its average unit price is only 69000 US dollars, about half of the average unit price of CNC lathes imported from Chinese Mainland (125000 US dollars)

in addition, China's import of machine tools from Japan increased by 83.3%, ranking first in China's import source of metal processing machine tools, Accounting for 41.0% of the total amount of metal processing machine tools imported by China

in the new round of ECFA (cross strait economic cooperation "graphene oxide (go)) It may be easier to manufacture than graphene as a framework agreement). In the negotiation, if the current situation of the machine tool industry is not taken into account, the industrialization process of medium-sized CNC machine tools in the mainland, which was originally difficult to develop, will further slow down. Due to the lack of basic support of medium-sized CNC machine tools, the industrialization process of high-end CNC machine tools will be more difficult, and the industrial safety will be threatened

let's not just stand and pick peaches. The peaches on the top are bigger and redder. EN Baobao said that in the past few years, China's machine tool market has been so good that you can harvest it standing, so that enterprises are too lazy to jump. But the result of not exercising for a long time is that when you need to jump, you may have stiff legs and can't do what you want

after recent years' development, en Baobao believes that many machine tool enterprises have the ability to do a good job of universal machine tools. As long as you have the heart and intention, it is completely possible to reach this level

the machine tool association also said in the analysis report that it is obviously a top priority to strive for the replacement of imports, especially the import of mid-range CNC machine tools, and it is also something that some industry enterprises can achieve within a certain period of time

the profit growth is not optimistic

in the article "it is difficult to increase production and income, and the China Daily reveals the hidden pain of the industry", the Ministry of science and technology, ICT and future planning of South Korea announced the description of this scientific research achievement

according to the analysis of China Machine Tool Industry Association in the first half of the year, the output of metal cutting machine tools increased by 23.7% year-on-year (including the output of CNC machine tools increased by 45% year-on-year), the output value increased by 30.4% year-on-year, and the product structure seems to have developed in a good direction

on the premise that the growth rate of output value is 6.7 percentage points higher than that of output, and the numerical control rate of output has increased significantly, the average unit price of products has only increased from 169200 yuan/set in the first half of last year to 169500 yuan/set in the same period of this year, but the year-on-year growth is less than 0.2%

this reflects that the increase in the output of CNC machine tools is mainly economic CNC machine tools, while the output of medium and high-end CNC machine tools and large and heavy machine tools has decreased

it is well known in the industry that the profit level is not high due to the low innovation degree of China's medium and high-end products and the generally low industrialization level; However, low-end machine tools (including economic CNC machine tools) have relatively objective profits due to low depreciation of fixed assets, mature technology, large batches, high production efficiency, but this is not the direction of the development of the machine tool industry. Accelerating the industrialization of medium and high-end metal cutting machine tools and expanding the market share of large and medium-sized high-end metal cutting machine tools are the fundamental guarantee for enterprises to obtain greater profits

in contrast, the change of product structure of forming machine tools is more reasonable. First, its output growth rate is much higher than the output growth rate; Among them, the average unit price of products has increased from 136400 yuan/set in the same period last year to 216000 yuan/set this year, with a growth rate of 60.3%. The sharp rise in the price of a single machine reflects that the product structure of forming machine tools has changed greatly, and considerable profits have been made

according to the statistics of the association, the profit of China's forming machine tools increased by more than 50% year-on-year from January to may, while the output growth rate was 7% year-on-year (of which the output of CNC machine tools increased by 24.65%), and the output growth rate reached 40.1%

another prominent phenomenon in the first half of this year is the significant decline in orders for heavy and large machine tools. I learned that the first half income of Kunming Machine tool, Qiqihar No. 2 machine tool and other enterprises that once made industry colleagues jealous was not ideal. It is understood that the operating income of Qiqihar No.2 machine tool in the first half of the year was only the same as that of the same period last year

some enterprises said that for some completed orders, users are not in a hurry to pick up the goods, and even explicitly require delayed delivery

it can be predicted that a large number of imported machine tools will enter the domestic market, which will have a great impact on the development of China's CNC machine tool industry. In particular, the import unit price of some large and heavy machine tools, such as Longmen milling, Longmen machining center, milling and boring machine, vertical lathe, CNC gear processing machine tools and so on, fell, causing more severe competition in the market of large and heavy machine tools, where market demand has begun to decline

for the market expectation in the second half of the year, a general view is that due to the slowdown in the growth of major service areas in the machine tool industry such as automobile, the result will be to slow down the next step of investment and progress, which is bound to affect its demand for machine tools

in addition, as the country has strictly controlled the scale of credit, it is inevitable that some enterprises will have a significant shortage of liquidity

this situation is quite similar to the feeling of the second half of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. At that time, Mr. Lang Xianping once said to the Chinese manufacturing industry: it is only autumn at present, and the real winter has not yet arrived

only that year, China's machine tool manufacturing industry seemed to enter the hot summer directly from autumn, and the enterprises that were not prepared for the cold clothes were still glad. However, I believe that history cannot be completely copied. At present, there is another crisis in the economic growth of the United States. The current winter of China's manufacturing industry may not be coming, but the autumn wind will gradually rise and the coolness will increase next

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI